Friday, 28 April 2017

Things must be bad, house prices have fallen

Today's news is GDP shrinking and house prices are falling. Not a lot but house prices have fallen for two consecutive months and if that's how you judge the bigger picture then one more month of shrinkage and house prices are into recession. When it comes to the economic outlook recession may well soon be on the cards. In the USA they are getting the Trump Bump. The rust belt area is seeing a renaissance but I doubt it will last and likewise here the pound has lost around twenty per cent of pre referendum value. So we are enjoying a period of unusual trade but imports are now that much more expensive and given that price rises are only just feeding in soon the jaws of inflation will start to tighten. Then the problems will start. I remember the 1970's and whilst we don't have the industrial base we had then people will start to feel the pain and I expect strikes for more wages not this winter but next. We may have a different and somewhat braver New world but some things don't change.

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